Forum Mafia - Shawshank Redemption - Salvation lies within

[field]

Too bad. You and WillBy are the only choices I'm allowing. Get fucked scum.

You're an idiot / playing terribly / scum. Choose one.

[Exalt]

I'll start with saying that lynching me is not a good option at all. I know I am town, I have played as townie as my role would enable in my mind. I know that others have disagreed with my night action, but it is what it is and I promise you, intentions are pure. Before proceeding further, I would like to know how exactly it works- do any votes not on field or I work as abstains, and will we get any sort of confirmation that these are the only three options? From this point forward, I will only consider the two options, vote field or abstain.

since it's been narrowed down to just field or not field, it's kind of interesting. Ill start with the statistical approach.
A day 1 lynch has certain odds of hitting scum, how is this any different? Well, because we cant choose another option. Feels like a Monty hall problem. We have 13 players left, presumably 4 mafia. Exalt hasnt confirmed if he believes jessups role, but I will go with yes, he believes jessup (since he believes paul died recruiting, it's the only explanation for no kill atm). Exalt sure looks town if this role is real. And he obviously believes kassius. It's been a few year since probability&statistics for engineers, so bear with me. The odds that exalt picked 2 townies are 6/10*6/9=1/3=33%. The odds that exalt picked one townie and one scum are at best (2)*6/10*4/9=54%. The odds of two scum are 4/10*3/9=13%. But since I know I'm town, the only 2 scenarios are both town and 1:1. So when exalt chose, he had a 33% chance of 2 town and a 27% chance of field being scum. But since the rest of us get to choose just between the first option and the second, theres a 45% chance of field being scum and a 55% chance of him being town. I guess it wasnt really Monty hall those are the same odds that field is scum if you just choose 4/9... but a stats review is always fun.



So let's analyze fields play. Hes been generally inactive, which is NAI for him- he honestly doesnt log into forums anymore. When he has been posting, it's been in my defense, which is looks good compared to people who just jump onto lynches. But theres the risk that hes just trying to buy himself townie credit. He hasnt brought up too many new arguments, so I cant tell if it's just that he got there after scarlet and I or if hes intentionally echoing. I'll conclude below:

I am leaning town for field. Its statistically probable that he is town, although only narrowly. I think his posts have been in good faith, and that he wouldn't be pushing back so hard against lynching me if he were scum. It would be easier to look townie by not sticking your neck out so far against lynching me, especially for someone who isnt posting a bunch. I cant know for sure if field is town, but he definitely isnt the scummiest player here. I would abstain if that were the only option.

VOTE: FIELD

[Exalt]

You're an idiot / playing terribly / scum. Choose one.

Beast has 10 times as many brain cells this game as you.

[field]

Beast has 10 times as many brain cells this game as you.

I'm not the one who is forcing town to lynch two townies.

[Exalt]

I'm not the one who is forcing town to lynch two townies.

Whose scum then?

[WillBy]

Whose scum then?

Thoughts on leo?

[field]

Whose scum then?

M_leo, Vehicle are my top scum reads.

[Exalt]

Thoughts on leo?

He's playing much differently currently than his last game as scum. I think he's likely town.

[Exalt]

So I don't really have the time to go check the VC at the moment, but on the chance I do get lynched today, I think all of the remaining town need to pay very careful attention to Willby, Scarlet and Field.

Pay attention to how they push, hard, back on other people's theories without really providing any of their own. They attack and attack and attack, but fill in no gaps.

Pay attention to how when their crusade on Kassius wasn't gaining any traction, their stories suddenly both swapped to "well just because he has a scummy role doesn't mean Willby is scum" and "people in D1 felt scummy" so let's attack them instead.

Pay attention to how they do "attack" each others claims, but in a very half-assed manner. They poke holes in each others stories but then, immediately divert attention away and right back to me.

Pay attention to the number of times that Scarlet and Field have said "What about m_leonhard and Vehicle?" every time people start to poke more holes their claims.

Pay attention to how they accuse me of "parroting" when they're just repeating each others talking points (about me, and others) over and over again. Note how I agreed with Scarlet (Post #447) and that was "parroting" but then Field agreed with Scarlet, on the exact same point, and that was seen as contributing.

Pay attention to how they accuse me of adding "nothing," despite the fact that Scarlet drowned D1 in a useless debate on game mechanics; how Willby threw out some weird-ass claim that he's spent the whole day defending and distracting with; and how Field hasn't contributed anything except to repeat Scarlet's points and to make claims based on his "gut."

Pay attention to how Field, in post #461 -- supports Scarlet's claim that Willby's roleclaim was anti-town, but then attacks me for arguing that Willby is anti-town. In what is an absurd strawman argument, Field for some reason decides I should be lynched because I believe Willby's roleclaim but think that the role-claim is an anti-town role. This is absurd. Either you believe Willby's claim -- in which he's claimed an anti-town role, or Willby is lying...and inventing a weird anti-town role in his lie. Either way, Willby is not town. Yet, despite this, I am the one he decides to vote for.

Pay attention to how they hound me for "disappearing" and not responding to their claims, despite it being, ya know 3 am my time. Yet they ignore the fact that half of this group has been silent this entire fucking day.

So if I do get lynched: pay attention to these three moving forward.

Hell, if I don't get lynched pay attention to them anyway.

I'm gonna keep my vote as is for now.

I liked this post until the very last sentence. Why would you 'keep your vote'? Voting is town's biggest weapon. Use it if you aren't scum.

[field]

I'll comment on last few pages in an hour or so. Gotta run.

[m_leonhard]

I liked this post until the very last sentence. Why would you 'keep your vote'? Voting is town's biggest weapon. Use it if you aren't scum.

I'm already voting Willby at the moment. I'll swap to Field or Scarlet though, if needed.

[Exalt]

I'm already voting Willby at the moment. I'll swap to Field or Scarlet though, if needed.

Oh, nevermind. I thought you were saying you weren't going to vote at all.

[m_leonhard]

Oh, nevermind. I thought you were saying you weren't going to vote at all.

Nah, just meant I was holding it on Willby for the moment, but I may adjust based on what the VC looks like.

[WillBy]

He's playing much differently currently than his last game as scum. I think he's likely town.

to be fair he hasn't played more than one game with us. Not sure we have enough to draw conclusions about play style.

I'm also not sure what you've said is true. He's been inactive and a couple big posts. Maybe I'm biased since I knew he was scum from the start, but this is not looking "much different" to me.

[scarlet]

I liked this post until the very last sentence. Why would you 'keep your vote'? Voting is town's biggest weapon. Use it if you aren't scum.

He's leaving it on willby, who he claimed in that post he thought was scum.
It's a cute post that ignores all nuance and takes advantage of the fact that people won't go back to check anything that happened. I really like it on a meta level, but it's scummy as hell.
Crusade against kassius wasn't gaining any traction? As far as I can see, neither I nor willby ever thought kassius was a good lynch. He's changed his claim thirty times and the only reason we have the fullclaim that we do now is because of how many times people questioned him about it.
Well, whatever, I need way more space than this to show what's wrong with that (m_leo's) post.

Exalt You've claimed you're holding today's lynch hostage. Besides natural questions like "what the fuck, how does that benefit town" it naturally flows into me asking:
Are we gonna see some kind of mod-confirmation of this? Or are you planning on asking town to just submit to your vote choices, then do the same thing the next day over and over? You've claimed that your role only let's you trigger a no-lynch, which again, seems pretty against town's interests.