TW Mafia 2020: TIGER KING - Murder, Mayhem, Madness

[Voth]

It's gotten quiet, so I'll add this: voth is trying to play me up as the "scummy one" all day one, when in truth he was #1 on most peoples scum lists. He misplayed and argued about how we would interact with the dayvig role, trying desperately to not let kthx get shot, until he noticed exalt argued the other way, at which point he said "whatever, let jessup shoot".

On the other hand, I was the first one to post that jessup should've hypothetically shot kthx. Post #147 is where jessup claimed guilty result on kthx, post #151 is where I suggested he shoot kthx. Post #163 is where 2020Voth suggests we lynch kthx instead. Post #189 is where Exalt agrees with my assessment. Post #196 is where voth begins to fold. And by post #209 hes folded entirely because exalt has pointed out his stupid play. And even then, he won't admit that it's clearly the right play, he just says "whatever, well catch 2 scum".

Anyone who believed jessups claim is immediately suspicious (Vothicle). Combine that with how he rolled over when it seemed he wasn't in the majority on the shooting issue, and then we've got him at the crime scene, killing the person who pointed out his flawed analysis.

Unrelated to the post above, I've got 3 questions for Voth:
1. you claimed you just wanted to offer protection to exalt, but you used a 2-shot jailkeeper on him? Your claim means you roleblocked him too. Did you want to roleblock a townie?
2. In your posts on the pages following the ones linked above, you suggested the scum team was kthx, exalt, and myself. If you thought exalt was scummy, why did you offer him protection. And if you didnt want to roleblock a townie, why didnt you use the same action on kthx instead. Were you more worried that townie exalt would be killed than that mafia kthx would have an action?
3. You said you would use your strongman N1, even if x-shot. This is apparently true, given that you have "used" one action of your x-shot N1. But your justification for strongman N1 doesnt exactly translate to jailing N1. Care to explain?

standby, I don't have time this second to respond. Not ignoring.

[WillBy]

That's fine, lynch me tomorrow even when Willby flips strongman if you must. I understand the heat coming my way and have resigned myself to not making it anywhere near the end of this game. I'll be a VT at that point anyway because I plan on using my last action tonight because of all this heat. I would imagine that when he flips strongman that might buy me a little
leeway, but what do I know. It's obviously up to town (and scum) to decide. If nothing better comes out of N2 then lynch me so you can cross me off the list.

How about this alternative, because I actually still am useful after next phase: lynch Voth here.
If he flips serial killer, I'm in the clear, but just a VT moving forward. as useful as Voth
If he flips mafia, I'm mostly clear, and can be useful at night going into future phases. Overthinkingit/paul can easily verify my role as long as we target the same person, which there wont be any need to be secret about now that my role is out.
If he flips town jailkeeper, I'm clearly scum strongman, and if x-shot, I'm a target to be roleblocked or tracked/whatever we still have.

[WillBy]

Willby, I see you were last active on forums this morning at 8:56 AM, a mere 6 minutes ago. Aren't you able to come up with a fakeclaim without input from your scum team? I wouldn't hold my breath if you're waiting on Partyfalcon's input - that guy only posted four times in 40 pages and two of them were about emojis.

I don't know why people think I'm third party either, I could easily coast in the background and lurk like Willby and blame having a young baby for my inactivity. But instead I have probably been the most active poster in the game. Classic scum and third party move right? Give me a break people. I've been scumhunting. Willby has been hiding. The choice is obvious.

standby, I don't have time this second to respond. Not ignoring.

Ahh, double standards.

[Voth]

It's gotten quiet, so I'll add this: voth is trying to play me up as the "scummy one" all day one, when in truth he was #1 on most peoples scum lists. He misplayed and argued about how we would interact with the dayvig role, trying desperately to not let kthx get shot, until he noticed exalt argued the other way, at which point he said "whatever, let jessup shoot".

On the other hand, I was the first one to post that jessup should've hypothetically shot kthx. Post #147 is where jessup claimed guilty result on kthx, post #151 is where I suggested he shoot kthx. Post #163 is where 2020Voth suggests we lynch kthx instead. Post #189 is where Exalt agrees with my assessment. Post #196 is where voth begins to fold. And by post #209 hes folded entirely because exalt has pointed out his stupid play. And even then, he won't admit that it's clearly the right play, he just says "whatever, well catch 2 scum".

Anyone who believed jessups claim is immediately suspicious (Vothicle). Combine that with how he rolled over when it seemed he wasn't in the majority on the shooting issue, and then we've got him at the crime scene, killing the person who pointed out his flawed analysis.

Unrelated to the post above, I've got 3 questions for Voth:
1. you claimed you just wanted to offer protection to exalt, but you used a 2-shot jailkeeper on him? Your claim means you roleblocked him too. Did you want to roleblock a townie?
2. In your posts on the pages following the ones linked above, you suggested the scum team was kthx, exalt, and myself. If you thought exalt was scummy, why did you offer him protection. And if you didnt want to roleblock a townie, why didnt you use the same action on kthx instead. Were you more worried that townie exalt would be killed than that mafia kthx would have an action?
3. You said you would use your strongman N1, even if x-shot. This is apparently true, given that you have "used" one action of your x-shot N1. But your justification for strongman N1 doesnt exactly translate to jailing N1. Care to explain?

First of all, give me a fucking break. Acknowledging your post and saying I'll get to it shortly isn't the same as disappearing for days on end after dropping a bandwagon vote when you haven't even been involved in the conversation. Nice try scum Willby.

1. Exalt never hinted to my knowledge that he was a power role. If he was, that was a risk I was willing to take to ensure his survival. Town Exalt alive but roleblocked is better than dead town Exalt. What kind of bullshit CNN question is this?

2. As I said, I targeted him so that if N1 ended with no kill, I would have felt better about Exalt being town, because statistically speaking he was likely targeted by someone, unless another power role got super lucky too. Basic mafia 101 - why playing dumb? Must be 2020 Willby.

3. See response #2 for the answer to this question.

[m_leonhard]

Did WillBy strongman kill Exalt last night.

Yes = Vote Willby
No = Vote Voth

If WillBy flips town, lynch Exalt.
If Voth flips town, lynch Willby.

If WillBy flips scum, but NOT strongman, lynch Voth as he must have been double-killed by third party Voth who's pretending to be Jailer.

If Willby flips scum, AND strongman, Voth could still be a third-party killer or whatever town role he claimed.
If Voth Vlips scum, WillBy could be still be a third-party killer or whatever town role he claimed.

So they both need to die, just the order.

That about right?

Yeah, I agree.


Also, since I've getting shit from y'all about inactivity and lack of analysis:

1) I am employed. I can't be on this all the time.

2) Mafia has fucking changed since I last played this 20 years ago at camp.

I frankly have no fucking clue what's happening. Each time one of y'all brings up some role I have to spend 20 minutes on the mafia wiki looking up wtf you're talking about. By the time I get back 15 minutes later there's another 30 posts with another set of shit I have to go look up. And by the time I'm back from that...another 30 fucking posts.

So, sorry. My analysis is lacking...because I have no fucking clue what anyone is talking about.



All that said...

First: nobody has answered my question: what happens if two people try to kill the same person? Is there any indication of that? Is it just "Exalt died"? Would both players show up as "successful"? Would one player show up as blocked and the other as successful?


Second: I still haven't voted yet because I don't know if we should do Willby or Voth first. Can someone explain to me the advantage of doing one over the other?


If Willby is a mafia strongman, does it make sense to kill him now because he can keep strongmanning around every night? How many men can a strongman man if a strongman can strong man?

If Voth is scum, he just said "I plan on using my last action tonight" is that something we should be more concerned with? How many men can the Vothman off if the Vothman can Voth off?

[Zeebu]

Yeah, I agree.


Also, since I've getting shit from y'all about inactivity and lack of analysis:

1) I am employed. I can't be on this all the time.

2) Mafia has fucking changed since I last played this 20 years ago at camp.

I frankly have no fucking clue what's happening. Each time one of y'all brings up some role I have to spend 20 minutes on the mafia wiki looking up wtf you're talking about. By the time I get back 15 minutes later there's another 30 posts with another set of shit I have to go look up. And by the time I'm back from that...another 30 fucking posts.

So, sorry. My analysis is lacking...because I have no fucking clue what anyone is talking about.



All that said...

First: nobody has answered my question: what happens if two people try to kill the same person? Is there any indication of that? Is it just "Exalt died"? Would both players show up as "successful"? Would one player show up as blocked and the other as successful?


Second: I still haven't voted yet because I don't know if we should do Willby or Voth first. Can someone explain to me the advantage of doing one over the other?


If Willby is a mafia strongman, does it make sense to kill him now because he can keep strongmanning around every night? How many men can a strongman man if a strongman can strong man?

If Voth is scum, he just said "I plan on using my last action tonight" is that something we should be more concerned with? How many men can the Vothman off if the Vothman can Voth off?

that was a lot of words that said absolutely nothing

also the question about what if 2 people target the same person... what does that matter? it wasnt in the flavor text and the only results would go to one or both of the killers. in what world can this information possibly be useful to town?

the willby vs voth comes down to plausibility of claim. i would have expected an additional kill last night if a serial killer existed. there are a bunch of what ifs that could go along with that like x shots and whatever... but in general, i dont believe the psychiatrist claim. so my vote lands on willby

and the last 2 comments are more dumb

[WillBy]

First of all, give me a fucking break. Acknowledging your post and saying I'll get to it shortly isn't the same as disappearing for days on end after dropping a bandwagon vote when you haven't even been involved in the conversation. Nice try scum Willby.

In the very post you couldnt stop posting, I said I was driving home that evening and wasnt sure I could make it before phase change. And then I didn't post during night phase, because I try to never do that. Paul acknowledged it, but you keep trying to force it. Double standards.

To who? Kthx leading votes with 4, you are at 3. Vehicle trailing with 2, which is where your vote is?
vote scarlet
Now you get to decide.
Halp when are you changing phases? I'm driving back home this evening, I wanna make sure I can stay up to date.

1. Exalt never hinted to my knowledge that he was a power role. If he was, that was a risk I was willing to take to ensure his survival. Town Exalt alive but roleblocked is better than dead town Exalt. What kind of bullshit CNN question is this?

Do you think there are vanillas in this game?

2. As I said, I targeted him so that if N1 ended with no kill, I would have felt better about Exalt being town, because statistically speaking he was likely targeted by someone, unless another power role got super lucky too. Basic mafia 101 - why playing dumb? Must be 2020 Willby.

this is beast logic. You said "if I roleblock/protect a player and there is no night kill, then they are probably town. Like theres no other conceivable reason that there isnt a kill like: I blocked the person who performed the kill.
You are ignoring the complexity of your alleged role and the game. I'll ask again, do I think there are vanillas?

3. See response #2 for the answer to this question.

Are you saying you would have jailed exalt n2 as well?

[the_paul]

Yeah, I agree.


Also, since I've getting shit from y'all about inactivity and lack of analysis:

1) I am employed. I can't be on this all the time.

2) Mafia has fucking changed since I last played this 20 years ago at camp.

I frankly have no fucking clue what's happening. Each time one of y'all brings up some role I have to spend 20 minutes on the mafia wiki looking up wtf you're talking about. By the time I get back 15 minutes later there's another 30 posts with another set of shit I have to go look up. And by the time I'm back from that...another 30 fucking posts.

So, sorry. My analysis is lacking...because I have no fucking clue what anyone is talking about.



All that said...

First: nobody has answered my question: what happens if two people try to kill the same person? Is there any indication of that? Is it just "Exalt died"? Would both players show up as "successful"? Would one player show up as blocked and the other as successful?


Second: I still haven't voted yet because I don't know if we should do Willby or Voth first. Can someone explain to me the advantage of doing one over the other?


If Willby is a mafia strongman, does it make sense to kill him now because he can keep strongmanning around every night? How many men can a strongman man if a strongman can strong man?

If Voth is scum, he just said "I plan on using my last action tonight" is that something we should be more concerned with? How many men can the Vothman off if the Vothman can Voth off?

Some fair questions and points here, I'll answer what I can.

1. Quit your job

2. If you have any questions about a role that comes up, just ask here. There are tons of potential roles out there, but we kind of unofficially stick to a list of probably 20ish roles? Occasionally hosts will throw an oddball role in, but in general we have pared the list down substantially.

Now to your question, the answer is that there isn't really a cut and dry answer. Some hosts will write it in and make it apparent, like someone having gunshot wounds and stab wounds or something. But there isn't really a rule about doing it. And in a game with a watcher, adding that aspect to the death writeups might reveal more information than is really fair. Good rule of thumb, basically ignore the flavor. It can be a great supporting detail to use, but in general if your argument or suspicion is based 100% on flavor, it's probably a bad theory. I've also had a ton of success manipulating the flavor to defend myself as scum, so take that for whatever its worth.

As far as an advantage, yes there are advantages either way. If Voth is telling the truth, then the concern is that WillBy could strongman again tonight if he's not lynched. Basically this means that mafia will be able to kill me no matter what tonight, if Voth ends up being the one telling the truth and we lynch him.

Now if WillBy is telling the truth and we lynch him, the danger is that there is a 3rd party killing role (I think, right Will?) that we will have a very hard time dealing with since we would have lynched our psychiatrist. If Willby is telling the truth, it is more likely that Voth is a goon or some lower level Mafia role, but you never can be sure of that.

So basically thats what we have to weigh here, along with how many factors have to fall into place for either one of their stories to be believable. Voth's story is 100% predicated on the mafia having a strongman who used that action night 1. Willby's story can't really be corroborated except if a 3rd party ends up dead or maybe we have 2 kills in a night, but someone else's role hints at a 3rd party potentially existing. So there are holes on both fronts. My personal focus is more on their stories and less about the pros and cons of each surviving, but both things need to be considered by everyone who votes. And ideally discussed, that generally works in town's favor.

[m_leonhard]

that was a lot of words that said absolutely nothing

Yes. That was my point.

And thank you for providing some rationale.

[m_leonhard]

Some fair questions and points here, I'll answer what I can.

1. Quit your job

2. If you have any questions about a role that comes up, just ask here. There are tons of potential roles out there, but we kind of unofficially stick to a list of probably 20ish roles? Occasionally hosts will throw an oddball role in, but in general we have pared the list down substantially.

Now to your question, the answer is that there isn't really a cut and dry answer. Some hosts will write it in and make it apparent, like someone having gunshot wounds and stab wounds or something. But there isn't really a rule about doing it. And in a game with a watcher, adding that aspect to the death writeups might reveal more information than is really fair. Good rule of thumb, basically ignore the flavor. It can be a great supporting detail to use, but in general if your argument or suspicion is based 100% on flavor, it's probably a bad theory. I've also had a ton of success manipulating the flavor to defend myself as scum, so take that for whatever its worth.

As far as an advantage, yes there are advantages either way. If Voth is telling the truth, then the concern is that WillBy could strongman again tonight if he's not lynched. Basically this means that mafia will be able to kill me no matter what tonight, if Voth ends up being the one telling the truth and we lynch him.

Now if WillBy is telling the truth and we lynch him, the danger is that there is a 3rd party killing role (I think, right Will?) that we will have a very hard time dealing with since we would have lynched our psychiatrist. If Willby is telling the truth, it is more likely that Voth is a goon or some lower level Mafia role, but you never can be sure of that.

So basically thats what we have to weigh here, along with how many factors have to fall into place for either one of their stories to be believable. Voth's story is 100% predicated on the mafia having a strongman who used that action night 1. Willby's story can't really be corroborated except if a 3rd party ends up dead or maybe we have 2 kills in a night, but someone else's role hints at a 3rd party potentially existing. So there are holes on both fronts. My personal focus is more on their stories and less about the pros and cons of each surviving, but both things need to be considered by everyone who votes. And ideally discussed, that generally works in town's favor.

Thank you, I really appreciate you taking the time to respond and break that down for me.

(looking at you Zeebu...)

[Zeebu]

Thank you, I really appreciate you taking the time to respond and break that down for me.

(looking at you Zeebu...)

?

i answered the same questions he did. i just used fewer words and ignored the parts of your comment that didnt matter

[WillBy]

the willby vs voth comes down to plausibility of claim. i would have expected an additional kill last night if a serial killer existed. there are a bunch of what ifs that could go along with that like x shots and whatever... but in general, i dont believe the psychiatrist claim. so my vote lands on willby

I mean, I gave you plenty of explanations for the lack of a second kill. I understand you not fully trusting the plausibility of those, but you do trust Voths "what if theres a strongman?"

If it's as simple as thinking that there isnt a serial killer, let me lay down some additional info, and you tell me what's more likely:

There were 16 players in this game. We have 1 confirmed townie, and 4 (2 dead) tracking type roles. Weve got a claimed doctor, and a claimed jailkeeper, and a claimed psychiatrist. Ignoring questions of beasts claims, as hes currently un-countered. Trusting this setup to be not too crazy, our 1/4 to 1/3 rule puts us at 4-5 scum. Based on the density of investigative roles, I could easily see the total number of scum reaching up to 6, including stuff like serial killer and survivor. But let's leave the guess at 5 as a comfortable average.

With a number like 5, I picture 4 mafia, 1 serial killer. 5 mafia would make the game too stacked, as youd just need to get rid of 6 townies (3 mislynches) to win. And every lynch there would be easier than the next due to numbers. Strong possibility of ending game after 3 phases.

Imagine that there is a serial killer (I'll remind you here, there is as good evidence that theres a SK as that there is a strongman). This enables the numbers game quite well, and can create higher paced games, as well as extending game past day 4 (4 mafia perfect game).

If you are basing your vote purely off the lack of results of night actions and not considering game mechanics and balance, you're gonna have a bad time.

[Zeebu]

i voted you with game mechanics in mind

[PartyFalcon]

?

i answered the same questions he did. i just used fewer words and ignored the parts of your comment that didnt matter

“I didn’t answer your questions, I was just a dick”
FTFY

[WillBy]

Now if WillBy is telling the truth and we lynch him, the danger is that there is a 3rd party killing role (I think, right Will?) that we will have a very hard time dealing with since we would have lynched our psychiatrist. If Willby is telling the truth, it is more likely that Voth is a goon or some lower level Mafia role, but you never can be sure of that.

If the possibilities were purely willby is strongman or Voth is goon, you should 100% lynch me. But I find it far more likely that Voth is the serial killer I am looking for. Which changes the balance there. If I'm right, you killing me this phase confirms that there is a third party, but at that point it's too late to prevent the 2 night kills. Theres been enough claiming that both the mafia and the SK will have their choice of targets.
meanwhile if you lynch voth and he flips jailkeeper, then you have me dead to rights as strongman. If strongman willby still has a shot left, paul is probably dead yeah. But there are lots of ifs here. If voth us telling the truth. If the mafia has a second strongman kill in them. If paul is the mafias target (I probably would in this case). Is the opportunity cost of paul worth 2 townies? Depends on which two townies tbh.

As a final tangent- I dont believe there is a strongman in this game (due to us only having a doctor and maybe a rber) to prevent kills. Strongman is not an overly useful role in a game with all watchers and trackers. And now that beast has claimed, a strongman is basically unnecessary for mafia