Forum Mafia - Shawshank Redemption - Salvation lies within

[WillBy]

Not going to try to partial quote you again, but just to make it clear scarlet- im not (was not) going to switch my vote to you because I didnt scumread you. You play an abrasive style that nets you votes early on- that's what got you lynched last game. Im aware it was 90% scum lynching you, but we didnt all realize that at the time. (It was reasonable to assume there were more townies on the train because having the cultist, the SK, and all the mafia working together is crazy.)

Anyways, you were close to me in votes, but I don't think you deserved to be on the chopping block tied with me. And I feel bad when anyone gets lynched D1 twice in a row.

[the_paul]

what flips voth flips flying vothicle
I didn't notice that willby's post about voth and jails was separate to the rolecall. (hah, get it)
Beast why's willby explicitly mentioning voth so early if they're on the same team? Since you seem to actually believe in scum!willby, do you think they're in the same chat or is willby as independent role like traitor more realistic to you?
the_paul field Vehicle Zeebu PartyFalcon Kassius Halp Sherlock Holmes m_leonhard
Thoughts on any of: Exalt/Willby, Voth, Double Lynches? Pinging you just since you're inactive (to vary degrees).

We really calling people out for inactivity overnight on day 1? Right on.

I'm not for a day 1 double lynch unless we actually had something concrete to go off of, which we don't. I'm not going to double quote, but you later scoffed at "day 1 lynching for information". What? It's the only reason to even do anything on day 1. We have to learn something somehow, and the only way we get that ball rolling is to lynch somebody day 1 and analyze voting patterns. It's pretty simple. So just to be clear, you're saying anybody claiming a day 1 lynch for information makes no sense, but you're also advocating for a day 1 double lynch? In what world does that add up?

If we lynch 2 people on day 1, statistically with a normal setup we are still more likely to lynch 2 townies. All we would learn from that is that scum is going to be on both wagons, along with basically every townie, because thats what it would take to have an even vote. Sweet, so we're down 2 townies and we don't have any idea who is on which wagon. No, I am absolutely not for a day 1 double lynch just on a whim, and I cannot find any logic in saying that lynching for information makes no sense.

Unvote EXALT
Vote SCARLET

[Zeebu]

that is a bunch of game mechanics talk. i'll bite anyway, whatever.

i dont envision everyone agreeing to intentionally perform a double lynch, so im not worried about it right now. its way to easy for a single person to flippy flop around and do whatever they feel like. fwiw i dont see a whole lot of positive outcomes from forcing a d1 double lynch without everyone on board. kthx why would you do this, its annoying. i hope there is some other unknown game mechanic that is in support of this double lynch stuff and not just thrown in on a whim. to reiterate, im not inherently opposed to a double lynch, i just dont see the town unifying on D1 and doing it in a way taht makes sense.

scarlet is annoying, but i dont get a big scum vibe from him right yet. talking about last game a bunch is silly but he at least tried to put reason behind why he was doing it

voth is being overly defensive voth, but im not getting a big scum read right off the bat. scarlet vs voth looks like town vs town arguing.

jessup is pinging scum a little. like scarlet, talking too much about the previous game but doing so just to parrot and toot their own horn for no reason. probably biggest scum lean at the moment.

im either undecided or unwilling to comment on willby/exalt at the moment.

some initial thoughts

vote jessup for right now

[scarlet]

Zeebu thoughs on m_leonhard and Beast ?

---

We really calling people out for inactivity overnight on day 1? Right on.

He says while we're at <12hrs to day's end and halp hasn't posted and several of the others have meaningless oneline first posts and nothing else.

So just to be clear, you're saying anybody claiming a day 1 lynch for information makes no sense, but you're also advocating for a day 1 double lynch? In what world does that add up?

In the world where lynches kill people.
That's this world, to be precise.

Day 1 lynch for information is retarded because it's a Day 1 lynch for not-scum.

Town win by lynching scum.

Lynching not scum doesn't benefit this wincon, and moves us towards lylo.

Lynch scum.

If we lynch 2 people on day 1, statistically with a normal setup we are still more likely to lynch 2 townies.

Better than lynching zero sum. If you lynch two people while shooting in 4/15 you've got
(4/15 + 3/14*4/15) + (11/15*4/14) i.e. >53% of a dead scum
assuming every member of the town is literally retarded and we have two random lynches, which is complete bullshit
The strike rate for hitting scum D1 is way higher than averages would imply on literally every board which practices any form of scumhunting.
It's not hard to see that some players are more likely to be scum than others based on what they've posted so far (and some less).
Let's have a sample list because it's not like this shit is hard but apparently it's news to you that yes, you can scumhunt on D1 as well as D2+

Exalt and willby are both towny. They've done things which are productive and not really done things which aren't. ++ town

Voth is filling the day with bullshit which doesn't help anyone find scum, but he's also going after people for legitimate reasons, though they are all low-hanging-fruit. +town -antitown

Partyfalcon is inactive in a kinda justifiable way = neutral
Halp is completely inactive -= worse than neutral
Sherlock Holmes is active lurking i.e. he's posting nothing but still checking in the thread - scummy

Beast is trying to push an easy lynch on a player for reasons that have nothing to do with that player's alignment -- scummy
m_leonhard is trying to push an easy lynch on a player for reasons that have nothing to do with that player's alignment -- scummy

Wow, that was so fucking hard.
What are you hoping to accomplish by voting for methe_paul ? Will this kill scum? Will this magically imbue you with knowledge of who is scum so you can lynch them next phase?

What, exactly, (explain it to me, because I really don't know what you expect to happen) is going to be different D2 that'll let you lynch scum?

[m_leonhard]

Did that guy seriously just compare a D1 double lynch with NO INFORMATION WHATSOEVER to last game when on D2 (note: not D1, isn't that interesting?) the town watcher came out that he saw two people visit the same town player...who died?

Yeah, I can't. If any of you want to subscribe to this lunatic's bullshit, be my guest and by all means, lynch me because 1+1=5 apparently. Like I said earlier, I'm jumping off before this crazy-go-round makes me blow a fucking gasket.

This. People are completely misremembering the shit that actually went down on D1 last time and using that bad memory to argue for some real bullshit.

First, last game people were about to lynch Jessup and probably would have lynched Jessup.... until Jessup was confirmed town in a free flip (i.e. town gained information).

Second, neither Willby or Voth were high on the final vote lists D1. Willby had one vote, Voth had none. YET, these were the TWO people who after N1 were at the top of everyone's list on D2. Why? Because TP saw them visiting Exalt.

Sure, Jessup ended up being right on kthx ....but kthx wasn't even killed D3. No, he was killed N3 by PF because on D3, town voted to kill another member of town.

A double lynch on D1 is a terrible strategy.

And, no scarlet I hadn't changed my vote because I don't want a double lynch D1 (apparently I need to start using /s tags on this forum....)

That said, I see a few people have jumped off Willby since I went to sleep last night...so

Unvote

Vote Scarlet

[the_paul]

If I need to explain Mafia 101 to you, I'd just rather vote you out. If I were scum, I'd be licking my chops over town seriously considering a day 1 double lynch. More likely that townies will have their feet held to the fire and have to panic role claim, just to watch focus shift to somebody else who has to do the same. That would make my day, watching town just line up their power roles for me to target. It's asinine. If you want to live in the world of day 1 panic claims, there are some on this forum who love that world, but they aren't very useful.

Your claim that lynching is only beneficial if it kills scum is just downright false. So lets say you lynch me today, and I flip town, then what? Do you say "oh shit, didn't get scum, forget day 1 lets move on to day 2 !!!"? No, you'll rub your brain cells together and realize that if I flipped town and I was lynched day 1, there was certainly scum on my train. Your list of suspects would have went from 14 or however many are in this game, down to the 5 or so who voted me out. Now lets say you convince everybody to double lynch day 1. You are still statistically more likely to end up targeting town players rather than scum players, that's just what the numbers in a regular setup tell you. What happens if we end up lynching 2 townies on day 1? What are we going to learn? In order to force a double lynch, essentially everybody is going to have to be on 1 of the 2 lynchees. So now we'd be down 2 townies, and we could be certain that scum is on both wagons. Which does nothing to shorten our list of suspects, and we could expect to start day 2 down 3 townies. And that's not even considering any role claims that would have to be thrown out for a power role to avoid dying day 1.

Double lynches are fine if there is any kind of evidence and it happens organically. Voth/Willby last game day 2 would have been an example where it could have made sense. I can't remember every nuance of that phase, and some of this is coming from knowing their roles after the fact, but we knew for certain 1 of the 2 had killed Exalt. They both ended up being scum so it would have really worked out well, but the double lynch would have guaranteed we got scum. Artificially manufacturing a double lynch by twisting statistics doesn't make any sense to me, and I don't find it to be a defensible position at all. Putting myself in scum shoes, I would find this strategy to be very promising to increase the likelihood of a scum victory. Plus, it's day 1, there isn't much else to go off of. Maybe I'll change my vote, Zeebu's point about Jessup is intriguing and something I'll have to look into, but at this point your posts have struck me as the scummiest. Could be true, could be because I don't find any logic in your hypothesis, I'll have to see what other people post and go from there.

[Zeebu]

i think we should let day 1 run the weekend and close it out on monday night. discussion is only beginning and several people havent said a thing yet. killing this phase tonight would hurt the game imo.

[kthx]

i think we should let day 1 run the weekend and close it out on monday night. discussion is only beginning and several people havent said a thing yet. killing this phase tonight would hurt the game imo.

I'm open to this if other people are interested and it might be useful to see if the inactives will pop in or I need subs before the game starts. However a 4~5 day opening phase might cause the game to feel slow and cause people to lose interest. Also I wouldn't want to change phases halfway through the weekend. I'll take any comments for or against in mind though, and you can do it in PM if you would like as it is possible to theorize scum or not scum based on wanting a phase done or wanting more time

[scarlet]

If I were scum, I'd be licking my chops over town seriously considering a day 1 double lynch. More likely that townies will have their feet held to the fire and have to panic role claim, just to watch focus shift to somebody else who has to do the same. That would make my day, watching town just line up their power roles for me to target. It's asinine. If you want to live in the world of day 1 panic claims, there are some on this forum who love that world, but they aren't very useful.
...
Double lynches are fine if there is any kind of evidence and it happens organically. Voth/Willby last game day 2 would have been an example where it could have made sense.

Sure, that makes sense.
What you're saying here is more like 'a double-lynch isn't realistic' than 'a double-lynch isn't optimal', but I can follow that for sure. I'm approaching this with a mountainous (no power-roles) mindset, but in a game with hardclaims and counterclaims etc. taking control of the lynch, I can see why the cost of getting to the double-lynch is higher than any benefit the double-lynch could bring.

Your claim that lynching is only beneficial if it kills scum is just downright false. So lets say you lynch me today, and I flip town, then what?

I wouldn't lynch you, because your response here seems like a town response. I'm more likely to hit scum then I would be on balance; I'm saying the random lynch isn't realistic and our odds are way better than that.

Do you say "oh shit, didn't get scum, forget day 1 lets move on to day 2 !!!"? No, you'll rub your brain cells together and realize that if I flipped town and I was lynched day 1, there was certainly scum on my train. Your list of suspects would have went from 14 or however many are in this game, down to the 5 or so who voted me out

Now this is asinine.
You think that all of scum, and almost exclusively scum, would be on the train of a townie, but not on the train of a scum, or what? You're assuming scum are in whatever lynch goes forth?
Scum are aware of this and can just not all vote as a group. They can pursue organically crafted cases just like you can.

If scum is trying to force a lynch on someone that's not founded on anything real, you can see that happen in real time, call them out on it, and lynch them that day without wasting a mislynch on whoever they're chasing.

[scarlet]

re: votes: Right now we're at:

[1] willby - Beast,
[3] Jessup - Sherlock Holmes, Zeebu
[3] Beast - Kassius, WillBy, Exalt
[1] Sherlock Holmes - Voth
[1] m_leonhard - scarlet,
[4] scarlet - m_leonhard, Vehicle, field, the_paul
[1] zeebu - PartyFalcon

Not voting - halp, Jessup

---

I support extending the phase over the weekend

[scarlet]

I guess I'll put my money where my mouth is
Unvote m_leonhard
Vote Beast

I'd still prefer to lynch leonhard if I had to choose, but scarlet + beast is definitely better than just scarlet

[scarlet]

bleh, I'm retarded
the_paul why would you ever believe someone's D1 roleclaim anyway? If you can dodge the lynch by roleclaiming, then all townies are obligated to fakeclaim a powerrole if they're about to be lynched since otherwise they're letting a townie die (and a not-townie not-die) for no benefit. After all, if you're alive it's not like you can't admit the claim was fake on D2 or whatever, if you're killed it doesn't matter, and nobody sane is going to hold it against you that you posted an obviously fake roleclaim on D1.
The answer to the world of D1 panic claims is to ignore them any lynch people anyway. Then people won't do it because it doesn't save them. If you're aiming for scum you're less likely to have the problem of being on a town PR in the first place.

[WillBy]

That said, I see a few people have jumped off Willby since I went to sleep last night...so

Unvote

Vote Scarlet

This is troubling for the same reason beasts vote was troubling. The only reason you have listed to vote scarlet is that he wants a double lynch?
My analysis of double lynch is that it's worse for town than a single lynch, but I dont think it's super unreasonable to be for it.

But if that's the only motivation for you to jump on board, then I think you might be hiding something...

[WillBy]

Now this is asinine.
You think that all of scum, and almost exclusively scum, would be on the train of a townie, but not on the train of a scum, or what? You're assuming scum are in whatever lynch goes forth?
Scum are aware of this and can just not all vote as a group. They can pursue organically crafted cases just like you can.

If scum is trying to force a lynch on someone that's not founded on anything real, you can see that happen in real time, call them out on it, and lynch them that day without wasting a mislynch on whoever they're chasing.

I think that scum have too easy a job manipulating double lynches. Using your number of 4 scum, which seems reasonable, the least influence scum could have is if we tied 7-7, which just wont happen. Any smaller train lynches just let scum have greater control. Yeah scum cant just jump around nilly-willy, but I think you can understand what I'm saying.

[m_leonhard]

This is troubling for the same reason beasts vote was troubling. The only reason you have listed to vote scarlet is that he wants a double lynch?
My analysis of double lynch is that it's worse for town than a single lynch, but I dont think it's super unreasonable to be for it.

But if that's the only motivation for you to jump on board, then I think you might be hiding something...

As explained by multiple others and argued by myself, a blind D1 double lynch is bad for town. The fact that he's pushing for it, so hard, is really scummy to me. Shit, he literally just changed his vote off of me to ensure that one happens. If he's scum (which I think he is), tying up the vote with Beast is 1) a mechanism to ensure that a townie goes down with him and 2) a means by which the other scum can hide in the voting. It's shady af.

Again, if you go back to my first post on this issue, I am not opposed to double lynching ever. As brought up repeatedly, the Willby/Voth vote last game would have been a great time to use that mechanism.

Now, if someone could point to specific arcticulable facts that give rise to reasonable suspicion for two players equally right now, then I'd be open to hearing a double lynch argument. But just a blanket "two lynch good, one lynch bad" is not going to win me over.