Mafia: What a time to be alive!

[Voth]

Missa, if you do not expect me to respond to your utterly random vote on me and analyze your posts, not sure what to tell you. Take heat off myself? What heat? You literally dropped a vote on me after calling ixt out, and even in your last post suggested he could be godfather, yet you vote me still. Very odd.

Whether you like it or not, it is not taking heat off myself, it is just a fact that if Rodney ends up lynched and is scum, you will be at the top of my list for Day 4.

[Missa]

Voth, I do get the main concept of the game, lol. I wasn't really sure what sort of things we were supposed to post -- I had never even read a forum mafia game before, which I should've done prior to see how it worked, and I'm still piecing together a lot of how things work. However, you wildly accusing me of being mafia at this point only makes me further believe you are and you're trying to take some heat off yourself by saying I'm making some typical mafia moves. Nobody else seems to have that opinion, really, but I do not find it a coincidence that you and ixt are starting to threaten me a bit. HMM.


Now, for ixt -- only revealed because people were piling on you?

You had ZERO votes when you posted this --

whoever the detective/cop/investigator is please quickly check me day 1 or day 2 so we can link up

Undercut then called you out asking why you were baiting out our roles on day one, unless you were Godfather knowing you'd turn up innocent or just trying to find out who our strong people are. You didn't have much of a response, only calling him dumb.

ONE vote when you posted this

i am vanilla townie but with an x-shot ability that i wont reveal until i find someone who i can trust

That got you up to two votes, which you followed up with this..

I am a vanilla townie but DO have an ability, yes. Fine, with that long page of percentage analysis ill give u the benefit of the doubt. vote willby seems there are bandwagoners forming hehehe

I read through all of RoDNeY's posts and still don't see much reason to be going for his throat at this point -- though perhaps there are some subtleties I'm not picking up on just yet. But hey, with Voth's kind guidance, I'm sure I'll be on my way to senselessly lynching town people in no time!

[Exalt]

I really want to see what Rodney says, since it feels like he's MIA for much of the game except for when he has votes on him. I'd like a claim, but I suspect he won't be giving one. If he does, it will be pretty cut and dry for me whether he is scum or town. I don't know what else I should say right now except for that.

Aside from that, Undercut, Missa, Biet, and Midoent are completely unknown to me, and I'd like to move on to figuring them out sooner rather than later. BIET refusing to vote Paul Day 2 and defending him still stands out to me as scummy, along with his no vote for Day 1. I think it's fairly certain BIET is scum, but Rodney needs to join the game and tell his side of the story first.

[ixt]

Yet to weigh in: midoent, zeebu

[Voth]

And yeah, I agree, the participation in this game has been wildly inconsistent across the board. I would like to hear more actual thoughts and analysis from a lot of players, as their lurking only confuses us and makes it hard to read them.

[Voth]

I thought of this possibility too. WillBy might make that play considering Paul was already on blast for being so suspicious, but I don't really believe it either. WillBy voted Paul at the very start of Day 2 before anyone else said a word, which just added unnecessary risk to himself there if he is scum. All kinds of claims could've occured to show WillBy was lying, so him not waiting for anything else actually helps his case a bit. Imagine if a watcher was on Paul or a Tracker was on WillBy, and then WillBy claimed to have investigated Paul. Either one could have proved him wrong, along with various other night action combinations.

I will say that I refuse to put WillBy in confirmed town territory right now, but he's not on my radar, nor should he be anytime soon. I just hope when people like you (assuming you are town) or I are all gone, and all that's left are new players like BIET, Missa, Midoent, etc... they don't instantly confirm him. Speaking of them, I'm worried that's exactly where this game is headed, and it will be a snoozefest when it does. Those players being so inactive and/or useless are hurting the game, and when it comes down to it, any townies among them likely will lose it playing this way. I hope one of them steps up when the time comes for them to do so.

Back to WillBy though... I still want to know what his Night 2 action was. He already full-claimed, so there's no reason he shouldn't have given that information. The only reason I can think of for him to not do so is if he either is scum that doesn't want to add more lies to the mix, since it will catch him up eventually, or he is worried about scum knowing whether he has a RB or a Doctor protection left. Honestly, it shouldn't matter if scum know, because town need that information more than they do. Also, it's mightly suspicious that WillBy is still alive at all right now, so him explaining what his night action was may help resolve some of that information. It could also help catch scum in the right circumstances.

Agreed with a few points on Willby there. I was shocked that he made it through the night as well, but assumed he probably protected himself. That, or mafia assumed he protected himself and went for Field instead.

I lean towards Willby being much more confirmed than you do, but that being said, I will not put him out
of my mind, as crazier plays have been made before, and it is fair to point out that Paul had a lot of instant heat.

[Exalt]

OK never mind, saves me some time looking back. Now that it is out there in the open though, do you care to elaborate on this or is it something that may endanger you during a night phase? It looks likely that Willby is a power role for town so you should still be good, assuming you are telling the truth and that Willby did not make a huge play to sacrifice lynch his scum buddy to gain town trust (I do not feel this is the case, just pointing it out).

I thought of this possibility too. WillBy might make that play considering Paul was already on blast for being so suspicious, but I don't really believe it either. WillBy voted Paul at the very start of Day 2 before anyone else said a word, which just added unnecessary risk to himself there if he is scum. All kinds of claims could've occured to show WillBy was lying, so him not waiting for anything else actually helps his case a bit. Imagine if a watcher was on Paul or a Tracker was on WillBy, and then WillBy claimed to have investigated Paul. Either one could have proved him wrong, along with various other night action combinations.

I will say that I refuse to put WillBy in confirmed town territory right now, but he's not on my radar, nor should he be anytime soon. I just hope when people like you (assuming you are town) or I are all gone, and all that's left are new players like BIET, Missa, Midoent, etc... they don't instantly confirm him. Speaking of them, I'm worried that's exactly where this game is headed, and it will be a snoozefest when it does. Those players being so inactive and/or useless are hurting the game, and when it comes down to it, any townies among them likely will lose it playing this way. I hope one of them steps up when the time comes for them to do so.

Back to WillBy though... I still want to know what his Night 2 action was. He already full-claimed, so there's no reason he shouldn't have given that information. The only reason I can think of for him to not do so is if he either is scum that doesn't want to add more lies to the mix, since it will catch him up eventually, or he is worried about scum knowing whether he has a RB or a Doctor protection left. Honestly, it shouldn't matter if scum know, because town need that information more than they do. Also, it's mightly suspicious that WillBy is still alive at all right now, so him explaining what his night action was may help resolve some of that information. It could also help catch scum in the right circumstances.

[ixt]

I stand with the vote on Rodney to determine some previously named individuals' fates.

[ixt]

Whatever he is, he is most definite town unless he pulled off the most believable lie I have ever seen. But judging by a human standpoint through logic and pressure, that's near impossible.

[Voth]

Yes, I agree, it is literally an almost certain (99%) statement that Willby is town, and who he says he is. There is always that chance, but I doubt it here.

[ixt]

This game will be very clear if the result is what we are projecting. If not, it got a whole lot more complicated. But chances are the first will happen.

[ixt]

I mentioned that I had a limit on the extension my role lasts, but did not clarify what, since there wasn't anyone fully to trust at that phase of the game. And voth if willby was scum, he would be doing that play most likely to one of his lowly goons, not the MAFIA COP his source of info. With that play I put my full trust in willby.

reposting to emphasize the second part of the section.

[Voth]

u mean flip mafia.

Indeed, thanks for pointing that out.

[ixt]

You drive a fair point home. I will not even go through my Day 1 shenanigans again, as I have said it all over and over, and even alluded to it again a few posts back. I think it is possible that one of the people who voted Rodney is scum, just keeping the idea alive that someone may have done that to be able to point to that later in the game, but I have no one to suspect of that right now.

The only alternatives I see to what you are saying, and I see it as very unlikely, is that both ixt and Rodney are town, or both ixt and Rodney are mafia. Just to indulge all the possibilities, if they are both town, it seems unlikely because Mafia on day 1 has enough numbers on a 5-5 vote to throw their weight around (carefully) to make sure an innocent is lynched. If they are both mafia, then that directly implicates Undercut for tying the vote up to 5-5. And to be completely fair, you could also make the case that it would implicate me, though that would be a real gamble to unvote ixt in the hope that Undercut would tie it up (unless he is also mafia, which seems impossible because that would mean 5 mafia members in a game of 13). Anyhow, I am throwing these possibilities out there, and as I type them out, it is more and more apparent just HOW unlikely they are.

This brings me back to Exalts point about Rodney. At this point, it seems the most likely to me. And to be completely fair, if Rodney gets lynched and flips town, Missa just put a huge target on her back for next day phase. If any new info comes out this could change, but for now, vote Rodney

u mean flip mafia.

[ixt]

I mentioned that I had a limit on the extension my role lasts, but did not clarify what, since there wasn't anyone fully to trust at that phase of the game. And voth if willby was scum, he would be doing that play most likely to one of his lowly goons, not the MAFIA COP his source of info. With that play I put my full trust in willby.