Forum Mafia - Shawshank Redemption - Salvation lies within

[Exalt]

I think Paul's likely N1 recruit targets would have been: Jessup (not going to get lynched and claimed doctor so safe), Voth or Kassius. PartyFalcon would be like a N2 recruit in my opinion.

I honestly had a SR on Voth because of his inactivity and that hasn't really changed much.

I had been going after Kassius a little bit but I now look at him as town.

So if we were going off of that, I'd lynch Voth.

Mleo's post was sort of like a scum Hail Mary, but he didn't need to make it in the first place. So I kind of look at that as moot.

People are going to disagree with me but my list of least-likely to most-likely scum goes:
Vehicle > Exalt > Kassius > Jessup > Scarlet > Field > Voth > Zeebu > m_leo > PartyFalcon > Beast > Halp > Willby

It's possible I missed someone, and if I did it's not deliberate.

Jessup wouldn't make sense. Jessup would be a top NK target by scum imo, and as cult, you don't want to recruit someone that's going to die right away. Voth/Kassius/PF are possible, but since I believe the claims of Voth/Kassius, I don't think either are scum. PF is the only one who is still unclaimed between those 3.

[Zeebu]

The other two being Halp and MLeo. The 'who did Paul try to recruit' angle is for a 3rd scum possibility, assuming the first two are correct.

honestly, i think that PF is a viable vote today. a lot of it is process of elimination by who i consider town and probable town claims. pair that with the fact that PF was on the sherlock train. plus the gut feel that paul might have targeted him for recruitment.

its a tough train to start at this late phase of the day, but its one i could get behind. just my thoughts on it.

i cant come up with a reason to oppose the willby train though, while it would make sense thematically that someone would be a gambler in the game, the action he has doesnt make a lot of sense.

[Exalt]

First, I still dont entirely buy that paul suicided out. The flavor text seems more meta towards Paul than it is about how he died. It's been a while since I've seen shawshank, but I couldnt find anything on "bad meat" unless that means paul was trying to rape someone and they weren't a good target.

https://www.quotes.net/mquote/118583...ndy,Fat%20Ass!

Heywood:
Hey, Fat Ass. Fat Ass! Talk to me boy! I know you're there. I can hear you breathin'. Don't you listen to these nitwits, you hear me? This place ain't so bad. Tell you what, I'll introduce you around, make you feel right at home. I know a couple of big old bull queers that'd just love to make your acquaintance. Especially that big, white, mushy butt of yours.

Fat Ass:
Oh, God. I don't belong here!

Inmate:
We have a winner!

Heywood:
And it's Fat Ass, by a nose! Fresh fish! Fresh fish!

Prisoners:
[Chanting] Fresh fish! Fresh fish! Fresh fish! Fresh fish!

[WillBy]

I have strong reservations about any townie claiming to be "town anything" in their roleclaim, in a game of flavor. If I recall correctly, neither Kassius nor WillBy not Exalt nor Jessup did that (I could be wrong, but I don't have time right now to go back and check). I think Vehicle is fake claiming two-shot bodyguard.

:thinking2::\:\:\

[Vehicle]

I think Paul's likely N1 recruit targets would have been: Jessup (not going to get lynched and claimed doctor so safe), Voth or Kassius. PartyFalcon would be like a N2 recruit in my opinion.

I honestly had a SR on Voth because of his inactivity and that hasn't really changed much.

I had been going after Kassius a little bit but I now look at him as town.

So if we were going off of that, I'd lynch Voth.

Mleo's post was sort of like a scum Hail Mary, but he didn't need to make it in the first place. So I kind of look at that as moot.

People are going to disagree with me but my list of least-likely to most-likely scum goes:
Vehicle > Exalt > Kassius > Jessup > Scarlet > Field > Voth > Zeebu > m_leo > PartyFalcon > Beast > Halp > Willby

It's possible I missed someone, and if I did it's not deliberate.

[Exalt]

hopefully none of them as if town has a brain they ALL will have their feet held to the fire.. allowing voth a pass is silly.. the librarian role makes some sense but.. it is by NO means confirmed and voth has set it up so from here on out he does not have to confirm either. another reason to press on these 2 now.. again tho I will vote with the majority on a lurker if u all wish but I disagree on this strategy at this point and time. Town needs REAL info

I mean, nobody's role is 'confirmed' in the mechanical sense, but the librarian claim seems legit to me. Voth is probably Brooks:

https://shawshank.fandom.com/wiki/Brooks_Hatlen

[WillBy]

First, I still dont entirely buy that paul suicided out. The flavor text seems more meta towards Paul than it is about how he died. It's been a while since I've seen shawshank, but I couldnt find anything on "bad meat" unless that means paul was trying to rape someone and they weren't a good target. However, we have no indication that this cult recruiter is bulletproof. I dont think it is an implied thing like that godfather investigates inno. Maybe it's a common modifier, but it's still a modifier and he only flipped as cult recruiter.

Secondly, i want to look at a full list of people paul might recruit. I agree on him not recruiting beast, leo. Throw jessup in there as well, as I would have been worried that jessup would be night killed. For arguments sake, you weren't on the table. I dont think zeebus role would happen before recruitment, so hes out. Same with kassius.
This leaves willby, vehicle, voth, field, halp, scarlet, partyfalcon. Paul was townread d1, so there wasnt anyone he needed to try to convince to flip.

scarlet got a lot heat D1, this is either a really good recruit or a really bad one. At some point paul decided scarlet was town though.
Field, halp, party falcon were relatively inactive D1, but have high skill ceilings and would make for good recruits. They all also were under the radar for the most part D1. This is who I would recruit, personally. But I do know all 3 more closely than paul would.
WillBy, Voth were both present D1. Early train on me, but townread after that. Maybe good recruit. I honestly dont remember much of D1 Voth, but hes a talented enough player he would be a good recruit. But for both Voth and I, there is a higher than average probability that we are investigated or killed N1, and despite being townread (at least for me) I think it is risky to target either of us in case, you know, we hide it well.
I think vehicle would be a decent recruit. He is good enough at the game that he can help, and not much of a lightning rod.

I would probably have tried to recruit scarlet, halp, field, partyfalcon, vehicle, willby, voth in roughly that order. The only thing I'm worried about is that paul intentionally acted strangely because he didnt want to see this game blow up like the last one.

[Exalt]

Willby(4) - kassius, beast, m_leon, vehicle
M_leon(2) - scarlet, field
Halp(2) - voth, exalt
Field(1) - jessup
Beast(1) - halp

Non voters- zeebu - partyfalcon

Updated.

[Jessup]

Let me rephrase this and you answer the question:

Between Field, Voth, and the two lurkers, who do you think would be more likely to last the entire game and make it to lylo?

hopefully none of them as if town has a brain they ALL will have their feet held to the fire.. allowing voth a pass is silly.. the librarian role makes some sense but.. it is by NO means confirmed and voth has set it up so from here on out he does not have to confirm either. another reason to press on these 2 now.. again tho I will vote with the majority on a lurker if u all wish but I disagree on this strategy at this point and time. Town needs REAL info

[field]

I have strong reservations about any townie claiming to be "town anything" in their roleclaim, in a game of flavor. If I recall correctly, neither Kassius nor WillBy not Exalt nor Jessup did that (I could be wrong, but I don't have time right now to go back and check). I think Vehicle is fake claiming two-shot bodyguard.

[Jessup]

w/e im sleeping.. i'll join towniest train with most votes either way.. not gonna do a throw away

[Exalt]

Please stop focusing on lurkers ffs . we need at least a 2 for one info gain train.. lurkers give us just a 1 for 1 and are basically guesses. I feel like 2 lurkers are scum but why just guess?

Let me rephrase this and you answer the question:

Between Field, Voth, and the two lurkers, who do you think would be more likely to last the entire game and make it to lylo?

[field]

Voth I haven't commented on your roleclaim and result on me because I've been sleeping. I believe you are the Librarian. Did you read the post I tagged you in? If not, go back and read. The post was prior to your roleclaim.

On D1 I had a scum read on you despite a very town play, because it is not unlike you to pull that kind of play as scum. While I did not contribute the rest of D1, I made sure to read it and analyze it before submitting a night action. At beginning of D2, my view of you changed. Note the timeline I'm giving you and read my previous post.

Exalt I posted my reasons for reading m_leo as scum. Most of note -- I caught him at best misconstruing what I and others have said and at worst deliberately lying about it. I will be very, very surprised if he flips town. I read you as town.

[Exalt]

for hte time being i buy vehicles claim so hes off the list.

i'll go read through willby's claim again and think on how palatable it is

why not PF though?

The other two being Halp and MLeo. The 'who did Paul try to recruit' angle is for a 3rd scum possibility, assuming the first two are correct.

[Jessup]

Please stop focusing on lurkers ffs . we need at least a 2 for one info gain train.. lurkers give us just a 1 for 1 and are basically guesses. I feel like 2 lurkers are scum but why just guess?